US-China-US-Garden: US China-US Garden

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Monday, September 19, 2011

Backlash expected if US seals arms deal

WASHINGTON / BEIJING - An arms sale by the United States to Taiwan, a probability according to media reports, will damage relations with China and trigger strong reaction from Beijing, analysts said.

According to a Washington Times report over the weekend, the Obama administration was expected to formally notify Congress this week of a $4.2-billion arms deal to Taiwan that will include an upgrade for the island's aging fleet of F-16 fighter jets.

Taiwan applied in 2007 to buy 66 F-16 C/D fighters. These jets have better radar and more powerful weapons than the 146 F-16 A/B fighters it currently has.

US President Barack Obama had reportedly decided against selling Taiwan the advanced F-16 model, the C/D fighters, despite requests from Taipei and Congress. But Obama may authorize the sale of upgrade kits for the F-16 A/B model.

Beijing has already warned of severe consequences if the arms package goes ahead.

Zhou Tienong, vice-chairman of China's top legislature, said on Saturday during a visit to Washington that an arms sale to Taiwan will hurt not only Sino-US relations and cross-Straits ties but also the interests of the American people.

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu on Friday urged the US to abide by the three joint communiqus on relations in which the US pledged to reduce arms sales to the island.

US arms sales to Taiwan have long been a source of tension in cross-Straits, and China-US, relations. Beijing broke off military ties in January last year in protest against a $6.4 billion US arms sale to Taiwan which included Patriot missiles, Black Hawk helicopters and equipment for Taiwan's existing F-16 fleet. China rejected a proposal for a visit by US Defense Secretary Robert Gates in June 2010. It was not until the end of 2010 that military-to-military exchanges resumed.

Beijing will react fiercely if the Obama administration allows the arms sale, according to an article published on financial news website caixun.com.

Any sale would be a gross intervention in China's internal affairs and cast a shadow over Sino-US relations, the article said.

If the sale went through "a smokeless war on the economic front would occur between China and the US", it said. The article also suggested that China should reduce its huge holdings of US Treasury bonds as part of retaliatory measures.

"I certainly expect that we will see reaction from China and we will see suspension of some military exchanges," Bonnie Glaser, China security expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said.

But neither Washington nor Beijing wanted to see it escalate, she said during a discussion at the US-China Policy Foundation last week.

Tao Wenzhao, a senior researcher at Tsinghua University, said that any arms sale that occurred 32 years after the normalization of China-US relations "is incompatible with the big picture".

"The (arms sale) hurts China's core interests. And to keep on doing the wrong thing for 30 years just doesn't make it right," he added.

The arms package is also incompatible with the peaceful cross-Straits situation, Tao said.

Cross-Straits relations have stabilized since incumbent island leader Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang took office in 2008. Ma has been pursuing close economic ties with the mainland.

"The US said it supports peace and stability in cross-Straits relations there is no need to sell more arms to Taiwan," Tao added.

The upcoming leadership election in Taiwan is becoming another factor that might affect Sino-US relations.

"The position of the Taiwan leader who wins the 2012 election is key to the solution of the Taiwan question," said Xin Qi, vice-president of the China Association of Cultural Development, a non-profit civic group that promotes reunification.

There were reports that Washington was concerned about the inability of Tsai Ing-wen to sustain the cross-Straits relationship.

Tsai, the leader of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), visited Washington last week to seek support for her "presidential" campaign against Ma.

A senior US official said Tsai had sparked concern about stability across the Taiwan Straits after she met with administration officials in Washington, the Financial Times reported.

"She left us with distinct doubts about whether she is both willing and able to continue the stability in cross-Straits relations the region has enjoyed in recent years," the unnamed official was quoted as saying.

Richard Bush, director for Northeast Asian Policy Studies with the Brookings Institution, said: "We were very anxious about the situation during 1995 to 2008 (when the DPP was the ruling party and pushed for Taiwan's 'independence'). We have welcomed what has happened since Ma took office."

Tsai would "rattle" Beijing, Glaser, from the CSIS, said.

"The improvement of cross-Straits relations is in the interest of all three sides," said Robert Sutter, professor of international affairs at George Washington University.

"The idea of going back to that (the turbulent situation under former Taiwan leader Chen Shui-bian's leadership) is not possible, given the negative experiences all three sides had in that period."

China isn't a big threat to the US

Many argue that the US is being taken over by China both militarily and economically, but it is unlikely that China can begin to pose a threat, according to Peer Nielsen in an op-ed piece in The Boston Globe on Sept 17, 2011.

Compared to China, said Nielsen, a businessman who has lived in China, the United States has a military budget almost as large as all the world's military budgets put together.

Also, the US economy, in relatively decline, is still about three and a half times larger than China's, he added. "With current growth rates, China would only overtake the United States mid-century in absolute terms; on a per capita basis, it would overtake the United States late this century, all else being equal."

The reason why many folks are fretting over China, argued Nielsen, is that they do not understand "China is a developing country in most respects, with few of the needed critical components in place to threaten the United States in the short term."

China is now in no position to compete with the US in the critical areas, says Nielsen. "The Chinese economy is also extremely unbalanced, with exports heavily favored over domestic consumption. China has no brand names to speak of; for example, although the Toshiba computer this column is typed on is made in China, the factory is not owned or managed by a mainland company. This is typical and China needs to move from assembling products to controlling the entire chain - R&D, branding, manufacturing, sales, and distribution - in order to become a commercial force on the world stage. Such transformation will not take place overnight."

Cisco sends Sichuan $50m

Doctors busying themselves at a temporary hospital in Wenchuan, in Southwest China's Sichuan province. American company Cisco Systems Inc is financing a three-year program to help the post-earthquake region to set up an advanced healthcare networked infrastructure.

WENCHUAN, Sichuan - Cisco Systems Inc has invested more than $50 million in a three-year program to help Sichuan's post-earthquake regions to set up an advanced networked infrastructure that has greatly improved the standard of local people's healthcare and education services.

A massive earthquake devastated Sichuan province in May 2008. In addition to significant loss of life, the earthquake destroyed many schools and hospitals located in rural, hard-to-reach areas.

Cisco, the Cisco Foundation, and its employees immediately responded by donating more than $2.6 million in grants and relief funds.

But a longer-term response was needed to restore and revitalize the region. The vision for rebuilding a better life for Sichuan people resulted in the creation of a unique public-private partnership, a three-year Cisco program called Connecting Sichuan.

Connecting Sichuan was designed to systematically transform healthcare, education and the workforce in the province through the use of information and communications technology (ICT).

Never before had China collaborated with a United States-based private sector company to undertake such an ambitious and wide-ranging project.

Eight out of 10 of the hardest-hit counties in Sichuan benefited from the program. Cisco helped 66 healthcare organizations and 102 education organizations to build up the network-enabled infrastructure.

"By using technology to connect communities, rural and remote areas in Sichuan gained equal access to higher-quality services in healthcare and education typical in urban areas," said Wang Songbai, president of Wenchuan People's Hospital.

Wang, from the Qiang ethnic group, talks breathlessly about the benefits brought by Cisco's equipment.

For example, the network enables providers throughout the healthcare system to interact and share resources. A remote local clinic can tap into patient records at a centralized data center, a doctor can share X-rays with a colleague thousands of miles away, and a village nurse can connect to specialists and diagnostic resources located at a regional hospital.

"Previously, if we encountered problems during an operation, we would have to wait for at least seven hours before doctors from higher-level hospitals could arrive at the scene and give us guidance. Now we only need to connect our equipment and those doctors can immediately supervise the operation," Wang added.

Not all injuries inflicted by the Sichuan earthquake were physical. Many people suffered from post-traumatic stress disorder long after the ground stopped shaking.

Among the victims was Jia, a Sichuan woman who lost her child to the earthquake and was having difficulty with a new pregnancy. Using Cisco TelePresence, a high-definition video conferencing technology, Jia received psychological counseling in a mobile clinic, administered by a therapist in Hong Kong. She later gave birth to healthy twin girls.

Connecting Sichuan also included education programs. It led to a sustainable model for advancing education based on ICT-enabled multimedia classrooms, connecting urban expertise with rural communities in Sichuan and beyond.

More than 1,140 multimedia classrooms were installed and 4,500 teachers were trained to take advantage of the new environment, capable of transforming the classroom into an intensive interactive learning experience.

Provincial and county-level education "clouds" were established to connect schools with each other and with centralized resources and services. Six curriculum resource centers serve 16 counties in Sichuan, storing online instructional content customized to suit local needs.

"This remarkable partnership extended to all levels of government and represented a joint effort between Cisco and Sichuan to create healthier, more prosperous communities through the implementation of ICT technologies," said John Chambers, chairman and chief executive officer of Cisco.

"Connecting Sichuan serves as a role model for how a multinational company can successfully participate in post-quake reconstruction," said Huang Xiaoxiang, vice-governor of Sichuan, at a news briefing.

Backlash expected if US seals arms deal

WASHINGTON / BEIJING - An arms sale by the United States to Taiwan, a probability according to media reports, will damage relations with China and trigger strong reaction from Beijing, analysts said.

Comment: Time for US to stop arms sales